Our flight forecast verification program
We are building a public record of forecast snapshots before publishing accuracy statistics. This page explains what is collected, what is not, and how future comparisons will be governed.
A forecast should not call itself accurate simply because it uses reputable inputs. CheckFlightComfort.com has begun saving anonymous forecast snapshots so future claims can be tested against a documented comparison method.
Saved without passenger identity
Distinct airport combinations observed
Requires a documented minimum sample and comparison method
What a snapshot contains
- Departure and arrival airport codes
- Departure day and optional flight number
- Comfort score and strongest route signal
- Counts of relevant advisories and nearby positive pilot reports
- Available signal count, confidence label, and coverage summary
No passenger name, email address, payment information, or precise device location is stored in the verification snapshot.
Why an accuracy percentage is not shown yet
A small or biased sample could create a reassuring-looking number that means very little. Before publishing an accuracy rate, the service needs enough routes, a defined observation window, rules for missing reports, and separate treatment of turbulence advisories, airport weather, and actual ride reports.
Planned comparison principles
- Freeze the prediction: use the forecast that existed at a defined lead time.
- Define the observation window: compare only reports reasonably near the estimated route, altitude, and flight period.
- Separate absence from evidence: no pilot report does not automatically mean smooth air.
- Publish false alarms and misses: report both directions instead of selecting flattering examples.
- Segment the results: show lead time and geographic coverage so unlike forecasts are not mixed together.
What will be published
Once the dataset and rules are sufficient, this page is intended to report sample size, route coverage, lead-time groups, signal availability, false-alarm frequency, missed stronger signals, and clearly stated limitations. Until then, the honest result is “collecting baseline.”
Read the complete forecast methodology or create a current flight forecast.